All the picks in one place! The BookieSmash team breaks down every NFL game for Week 4, and offers the best bet for each game using our wide array of betting sites. Read on before placing your bets this week!
SUNDAY, OCT. 2
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
These teams are flying to London for a neutral site game, and the expectation is a lot of points will be scored. That might largely be due to the Colts' pass-heavy offense, but the Jags are actually well-equipped to stop such an attack. They surrendered only 5.9 yards per pass to Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, and talented though Luck is, he's no Aaron Rodgers and the Colts are not the Packers. The Jags, meanwhile, have been an utter disaster on offense, as Blake Bortles has been unable to get anything going and is turning the ball over plenty. Expect more running from the Jags to try to minimize mistakes, and they should have enough defense to keep Luck in check.
Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins
The Browns rallied the troops against the Dolphins in a game they were expected to be blown out in, losing in overtime after missing an easy field goal that would have won. They got some mileage out of using Terrelle Pryor at QB, but that gimmick is out of the bag now, so the Redskins should be well-prepared for it. Whether they can actually stop it is another question entirely, as this run defense has been abysmal to date, allowing 4.6 yards per rush. The key for the Redskins will be jumping to an early lead to force the ball into new QB Cody Kessler's hands, at which point turnovers should follow.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets
We think the wrong team is favored in this one, as this could be a massive market overreaction to the Seahawks blowing out the hapless 49ers at home while the Jets completely imploded with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing an amazing six INTs against the Chiefs. These teams are pretty evenly matched overall, but the Jets have a massive edge up front with their stellar defensive line against the weak OL of the Seahawks — the Hawks rank just 19th in sack rate allowed despite facing off against two doormats in the Dolphins and 49ers. Grab the Jets in an undervalued spot at home.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Another friendly bounce back spot is the Panthers here after getting thrashed by a very nasty Vikings defense. They should get a soft landing against a pretty mediocre Falcons defense, which is coming off of short rest to boot after playing on Monday night. Cam Newton was totally bottled up by the Vikings, but that shouldn't be the case here. One thing to keep a close eye on is Newton's status in practice, though, coming off of a leg injury. If he's limited at all, this could be a dicey spot, as he's the engine that makes this offense go. The Panthers are already missing their starting RB, so they can't afford more injuries.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
The Bears put forth two of the most pitiful defensive efforts of the entire season the past two weeks, first getting eviscerated by rookie wunderkind Carson Wentz and then getting absolutely walked over by the Cowboys offense as another rookie, Ezekiel Elliott, rushed for 140 yards on them. This team just isn't stopping anyone and a slew of injuries on that side of the ball don't help. The Lions haven't looked much better on that end after getting roasted by the Packers last week, who looked like they could have put up 70 if they wanted before coasting in the second half. Both teams should be able to move the ball here.
Tennesee Titans at Houston Texans
Initially, the Texans opened at -7 but the other side has been hammered, moving them down to -4.5. We think the initial line was more correct here, and this may be an overreaction to the loss of superstar DL JJ Watt. Sure, Watt is amazing, but he wasn't exactly 100 percent out there in the first place, and former No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney appears to be finally coming into his own after making some impressive plays in the early going. The Titans couldn't even move the ball much on the terrible Raiders D at home, so this should be easy pickings for Houston.
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens managed to eke out another highly unimpressive win, getting by the Jags on a late field goal thanks to a pile of home team turnovers. This team still looks pretty mediocre overall, and the Raiders haven't really lived up the preseason hype either. We are still believers that this is an above average team, however, and getting +3.5 on the road is a nice number for a team with more overall talent. The Raiders simply need to get a defense that's last in the league in yards per play off the mat, and a one-dimensional Ravens attack that can't run is a good place to start.
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs got some preseason respect but are coming off of back-to-back horrific performances, first getting demolished by the Cardinals and then allowing an awful Rams offense to drop 37 on them. The Broncos, meanwhile, look like they picked up right where they left off with a suffocating defense now joined by a suddenly-competent offense. Given that, it's no surprise the public is piling on the Broncos here, but we like the Bucs to circle the wagons at home and give Denver a good scrap. Jameis Winston will have to take care of the ball, though.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Dak Prescott has the Cowboys looking downright solid in the absence of Tony Romo, and following a trucking of the Bears on Sunday night, he gets a nice date with the 49ers on the road. The 49ers got steamrolled by what looks to be a mediocre Seahawks team a week after they collapsed in the fourth quarter under a hail of Blaine Gabbert turnovers against the Panthers. The turnovers will likely be the key here, as there's a massive difference in QB play in this area. Prescott has yet to throw a pick, but Gabbert is liable to give it away at any moment, and Dallas will capitalize.
New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers
Drew Brees and the Saints put up a pile of points at home, as usual, on Monday Night Football, but their defense looks like an atrocity once again after being bulldozed by the Falcons with Devonta Freeman piling up about 10 yards per carry. This offense is usually a lot less effective on the road though, and the way to attack this team is clearly on the ground. Melvin Gordon gives the Chargers the workhorse to get after them there, and they can burn through some clock with that, assuming the Saints don't just part the seas every play like they did on Monday. Expect this line to move even more by week's end with that horrid performance in prime time fresh in everyone's mind.
LA Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Expected to be Super Bowl contenders, the Cardinals have looked quite mortal outside of their Week 2 stomping of the Bucs. A loss on the road to the Bills was rough, and the Rams have the pieces to put pressure on the immobile Carson Palmer. They have to force him into some mistakes with aggressiveness on defense, as the offense here simply doesn't have what it takes to move the ball on this Cardinals D. As long as coach Bruce Arians comes up with a plan to get the ball out to playmakers like David Johnson quickly — and we're guessing he will — this might be another home romp for the Cards.
KC Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers
The high-flying Steelers offense came down to earth in Week 3, getting absolutely thrashed by the Eagles on the road. They get Le'Veon Bell back this week, but it's not like DeAngelo Williams was any slouch out there, so that shouldn't have the impact many expect. One unit that did get back on track was this Chiefs defense. Nobody can really match up with Antonio Brown one-on-one, but the Chiefs have a top corner in Marcus Peters to make him work for his yards, and this pass defense overall was one of the league's best last year. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is loathe to open up his own offense, so there should be plenty of runs and short passes to eat clock here in a game with a high total.
MONDAY, OCT. 3
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
We've been riding this Vikings defense throughout the early part of the season, and this matchup with a one-dimensional Giants offense is no time to get off the train. The Giants have zero running game, and Eli Manning is a turnover machine when forced into high-volume passing. The Giants do sport a halfway decent defense though — opponents are struggling to just 3.2 yards per rush — so we expect both teams to have trouble moving the ball here. A turnover-fest could derail this one if both teams are working with short fields, but hopefully the defenses are stout enough to hold the opposition to field goals if that's the case.
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