All the picks in one place! The BookieSmash team breaks down every NFL game for Week 16, and offers the best bet for each game using our wide array of betting sites. Read on before placing your bets this week!
SATURDAY, DEC. 24
Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears
Things have been fairly encouraging for the Bears since installing Matt Barkley as the team's new starting QB following injuries to their other signal-callers. The Bears have covered in each of Barkley's starts and been quite competitive doing so — they probably should have beaten the Titans and they had the ball with a chance to take a fourth-quarter lead in Packer territory against surging Green Bay. The Redskins have been unimpressive of late and the Bears match up pretty well with them with a decent pass defense in a cold weather game. The Bears keep the cover streak rolling while getting a key number.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
What if Matt Moore is just better than Ryan Tannehill? The idea isn't that crazy given how mediocre Tannehill has been, and Moore looked good in a plum assignment against the beyond putrid Jets secondary. The Dolphins get another nice matchup here with a Bills team that hasn't really stopped anyone all year. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo should run roughshod over a 22nd-ranked Miami run defense with the nastiest run game in the league spearheaded by LeSean McCoy. Cold weather and some winds have pushed down this total, but we still like the over.
Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints
These teams met a few weeks ago in what proved to be a low-scoring battle, but this one should feature some more points. Drew Brees broke out of a horrific slump against the Cards with a massive game, but the Bucs are playing much better on defense at this stage of the season. They're particularly strong against the pass with corners Brent Grimes, Alterraun Verner, and Vernon Hargreaves providing the type of personnel necessary to match the WR-heavy sets the Saints will roll out. The Bucs are just the better team, so we expect them to cover +3.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Week after week, the Falcons continue to cover for the masses, and nearly 80 percent of bettors are lining up to keep riding the hot team. This should be the week things come off the tracks a bit for the Dirty Birds though, with a trip to bitter rivals Carolina on tap. These teams have been less than friendly to each other in recent years, with the Falcons derailing the Panthers' dream season last year to keep them from going unbeaten. The shoe will be on the other foot this time as Cam Newton shreds the league's 27th-ranked defense to keep Tampa Bay's divisional hopes alive.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Fading Aaron Rodgers is one of the toughest propositions right now, as he looks to be back to Hall of Fame form after putting up 8+ yards per attempt over the past four or five weeks. One of the few teams that should be able to offer some resistance is the Vikings, who have the corners to match up with Green Bay's receivers and the pass rushers to make Rodgers hurry his reads. Getting the Vikings at less than +7 isn't very appetizing, but as long as you're getting a TD, it's a fine play.
NY Jets at New England Patriots
This game feature's one of the most brutal matchups of the season in the Patriots' efficient aerial assault against the absolutely nightmarish Jets secondary. Matt Moore made mincemeat of these guys coming off the bench cold on short preparation. The Jets figure to get brutalized on that side of the ball, and when the Patriots put up 30+, they'll dial it back on defense and allow a touchdown or two to push this one over the total.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jags
Blake Bortles is putting up some scary-bad numbers for Jags after leading the way to less than 100 passing yards last week against a fairly nasty Texans defense. He should be able to get somewhat back on track against the 23rd-ranked passing defense in the league. Despite the team's overall awful play, the Jags have actually been quite competent on defense, and if the improvements against the run are real, this matchup doesn't look too bad for them. Stacking the box and stopping DeMarco Murray is the key, and if the Jags can continue playing solid D, they'll keep this within the number.
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns
The fade-the-Browns train continues to print money for the public week after week. We've been on board in recent weeks, and it's going to stay that way in Week 16 against the Chargers. While motivation could be waning for a team that has dropped totally out of the race, nobody wants to be the first team to lose to the Browns. Philip Rivers should carve up the league's next-to-last pass defense, and the Browns' incredible incompetence on offense will meet a defense that's been much better than expected. If Joey Bosa doesn't knock Robert Griffin III out of the game at some point, it will be a mild surprise.
Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders
One of the most surprising Week 15 performances was the absolute thrashing the Colts handed the Vikings on the road. Andrew Luck is playing some outstanding football right now, and he has to be licking his chops at facing the Oakland defense. Khalil Mack has been leading an improving unit over there, but Luck isn't the type of sitting duck who is a prime mack target. He'll be able to use his athleticism to escape the pocket if needed, and the injury to Derek Carr's hand has really hamstrung the Raiders offense by forcing them to only operate out of the shotgun. The Colts can trade scores effectively here and keep this close.
San Francisco 49ers at LA Rams
Todd Gurley has to be chomping at the bit for this matchup after having had a brutally disappointing season. The 49ers seem to have totally checked out, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, where the run defense ranks 30th. It could finally be the week Gurley breaks out, and QB Jared Goff has to be excited after being roughed up by the Seahawks. The Rams have been completely unable to stop anyone through the air in recent weeks, so we like the over here with both teams putting up some points.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
The Cardinals play below their talent level every single week. Will that finally change here in Week 16? Even if it doesn't, +7.5 gives an awful lot of leeway for the Cardinals against a Seahawks team that's missing its best defender in Earl Thomas. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passed all over these guys, but their struggles without Thomas were masked last week playing against Jared Goff and the Rams, who are Jared Goff and the Rams. They'll be back this week against a Cardinals passing offense that has been below par this year but still has the type of speedy deep weapons in JJ Nelson and John Brown that really make it necessary to have an active, capable safety.
SUNDAY, DEC. 25
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Tom Savage rode in off the bench in one of the most unlikely cavalry scenarios of the year to save the day with the Texans absolutely wilting under a hail of Brock Osweiler picks against the Jags. He turned things around and engineered a W, and now he faces a Bengals defense with some solid corners. He'll have to be careful to avoid throwing picks, but it's a nice spot at home against a Bengals team that should be crashing after a deflating loss to the rival Steelers and has nothing to play for. The Texans get the home win.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
A rematch of one of the best games of the year is on tap for Arrowhead, and the Chiefs aren't getting much respect from the betting market barely over -3 favorites at home with the line sinking fast. But, this is a Broncos offense that just put up 3 points against a pretty poor Patriots defense. Now, they're going to go into Arrowhead, where bad QBs typically crumble. We don't like Trevor Siemian's chances of moving the ball against the Chiefs, especially after the team inexplicably blew a late lead to the Titans. The Chiefs come in focused and close the door on Denver's season in windy KC.
MONDAY, DEC. 26
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Another frightening Week 16 unit matchup is this second-ranked Dallas offense against the putrid Lions defense, with its 20th-ranked run stopping unit. If Ezekiel Elliott doesn't get this team to 14 points by himself, it will be a mild surprise. Matt Stafford will be airing it out plenty once the team falls behind, because there's just no way this team is stopping Dallas. This total looks a mile too low, so we love the over in this spot.
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