All the picks in one place! The BookieSmash team breaks down every NFL game for Week 10, and offers the best bet for each game using our wide array of betting sites. Read on before placing your bets this week!
SUNDAY, NOV. 13
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags finally showed some signs of life in a competitive loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead in which they got 6 YPP to 4.1 for the Chiefs. Can they carry it over to a divisional matchup with the Texans? Houston's coming off of a bye, but it's tough to swallow this team being even money on the road against almost any NFL team. The Jags finally have a running game going with Chris Ivory, and the Jags may actually have the better QB for once. He'll be more able to get it to playmakers in the passing game, so the Jags squeak one out at home.
KC Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
A once-fearsome defense has fallen off for the Panthers as they've been shredded through the air this year to the tune of 7.7 YPP. Luckily, they get a date with a Chiefs passing offense that's infamously averse to throwing downfield and much prefers pounding the rock, right into Carolina's strength. On the other side of the ball, star pass rusher Justin Houston returns for KC, and he'll help make life miserable on Cam Newton. We expect slow going for both offenses here, so fire under.
Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints
A once-promising season has hit a bit of a rut for Denver, while the Saints are moving in the other direction with a little mid-season surge after stringing together a few wins. Sounds like a spot to buy Denver low and sell New Orleans high, and that's a big reason we like the +2.5 here. The Denver defense is a bit hobbled without CB Aqib Talib and DE Derek Wolfe, but the struggling offense should come alive against the hapless New Orleans defense. The defense should be able to do enough to slow Drew Brees and Co. down even if they aren't likely to totally shut them down.
LA Rams at NY Jets
The Rams are completely and utterly unable to move the ball, with star RB Todd Gurley being the only hope but even he can't drag the rest of this lifeless offense anywhere. A date with the run-stuffing Jets defense and the presence of Gurley on the early-week injury report as questionable means it'll probably be all up to Case Keenum to get things moving for LA. That's never a spot you want to be in, and the Jets at least have the skill position talent to string together a few drives while they choke the life out of the Rams offense.
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
Another spot to buy low and sell high is in Philly, where the sliding Eagles continue a very difficult stretch of schedule against the high-flying Falcons. The Eagles have exactly the elite pass defense — it's tops in the league thus far — needed to slow Atlanta down. Matt Ryan has been great this year, but he's never been the best under pressure and the Eagles bring plenty of that with the fourth-best sack rate in the league. Expect a couple of turnovers and an Eagles W at home.
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins
Speaking of turnovers, this tilt between the Vikings and Redskins looks ripe for several from Redskins QB Kirk Cousins. The mistake-prone signal caller has never been shy about letting fly even into tight coverage, and that's a recipe for disaster against the sharp Minnesota secondary. MVP-level QBs such as Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers have been utterly stymied by these guys, so Cousins should be easy pickings. The Vikings seem to be in somewhat of a free fall, but that only means we are getting a better price than probably should be hung on this elite defense.
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans
The Packers have been one of the most overvalued teams all year with just two wins against the spread, and they're road favorites here after getting blown out for most of the game at home against a bad Colts team. The Titans had a tough loss last week too but were quite competitive in a tough road date with the Chargers. This team isn't the walkover they were last year, and as long as Marcus Mariota avoids backbreaking mistakes, they have a great shot to win. That will be much easier if Clay Matthews is hobbled or sitting — he missed last week's game and hasn't practiced yet this week so keep an eye on his status.
Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers and the Chargers keep chugging along after a 29-point effort against the Titans — the defense helped out with two TDs. A resurgent Miami squad travels across the country here and shouldn't slow Rivers down much. The revelation in South Beach has been the play of a newfound running game with Jay Ajayi, and luckily for the Fins, that lines up with the Chargers' weakness as they're just 19th against the run. Expect another solid day from Ajayi, and the Rivers and Melvin Gordon will get theirs to push this over a high total.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
The Cards put one of the most brutal beatings in recent memory on the 49ers last season, and this one likely won't be much better judging by the monster spread. The Cards will go up early and look to run the ball and get through the game without any major injuries, possibly allowing the 49ers to get back into things with a backdoor cover. Colin Kaepernick showed he might have a pulse with nearly 400 yards last week against a bad Saints defense, and it'll be paramount that he use his running to slow down the Arizona pass rush. The absence of Tyrann Mathieu should aid him as well, and we'll call for a late score to get inside the number.
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers
We're definitely banking on improved health and a better performance from Ben Roethlisberger for this one, but even a high total of 49.5 here looks ripe for an over. The Steelers had difficulty slowing down the piddling running game of the Baltimore Ravens last week, so it's scary to think of what Ezekiel Elliott and his mauling OL will do here. However, if Roethlisberger was just rusty and not severely affected by an injury, he should bounce back and get going through the air against a Dallas defense that's just 17th against the pass. Two strong offenses do their things here and get the over in.
Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots
Patriots fever is at its absolute apex after the Pats covered yet again in their last game, two weeks ago against the Bills. The public has piled on every week and is doing so yet again at an 81 percent clip despite a large line against a good Seahawks squad. Yes, nobody has slowed the Pats down since Tom Brady's triumphant return, but if anyone can do so, it's probably the Hawks. They can get pressure on the immobile Brady after he's had it easy against a slate of opponents that didn't offer much resistance. Watch the officiating in the secondary here when the Pats have the ball. Both teams push the envelope there, so if one side is getting flagged early, it could be a long day.
MONDAY, NOV. 20
Cincinnati Bengals at NY Giants
An underrated Giants defense has been looking great the past few weeks and now gets a date with the Bengals, coming off of the London draw with Washington. They should be able to do their usual good work against Andy Dalton and a very middling Bengals offense. On the other side of the ball, the pass-happy Giants are reliant on Odell Beckham Jr. to get open and move the offense with big plays, but the Bengals have one of the few corners capable of matching up in Dre Kirkpatrick. He's helped hold opposing WR1s to the fifth-lowest production in the league, and that should significantly slow the Giants down, helping usher in an under.
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