How to Spot a Football Betting System That Works

The first thing to remember when choosing a football betting system that works is that you need to choose a strategy that is flexible, and that works for you. Einstein felt that insanity was repeating something but hoping for a different result, and his words apply as much to sports betting as anything else.

Some people talk about the law of averages. You often hear, "by the law of averages something has to go right for x or y team eventually", but how true is this? Sports do not function based on the law of averages. Rather a team that is good enough not to lose to anyone else in a league season, or which is not good enough to beat anyone, will likely follow something very similar to that predicted form.

Arsenal went the entire 2003-04 season unbeaten, each time having to deal with questions from opposition fans who felt that, the "law of averages" bring what it is, they were bound to lose at some point. They didn't, and this was because they had a squad that was good enough to win or draw each game. This also happened because Arsenal at the time did not rely on the pub football staples of passion, self-belief and commitment, they also had one of the world's best fitness, conditioning and sports psychology regimes.

What can a bettor learn from the Arsenal "invincibles"? He or she can learn never to leave anything to chance. Something else that Arsene Wenger and his coaching team at Arsenal, along with most other Premier League football teams, have always embraced is the use of statistics to improve their team selections and tactics. You can use football statistics and analysis, including that which you find on Bookiesmash, to bring great returns for your betting. Bring the attention to detail to your betting that Arsenal brought to their football and you'll see a vast improvement in the returns you get.

The second point to make is that the league table lies. Okay, over the course of a league season the team that finishes top is the deserving winner. But when we bet, we usually bet on the results or happenings in a particular match. If you only look at the league table and then bet on a participant winning a match, it's like if you decide whether or not to leave the house with an umbrella based on average rainfall figures for the year.

Form tables are a far more accurate measure of how well a team is doing, because they tell us recent trends, not longer-term ones. Football teams in the relegation zone before Christmas often hire a new manager and go on a run of victories. In this case, although a team is near the bottom of the table, it becomes a more sensible bet for the win, or for other match odds in its favor. It's been a truism of people following horse racing for years that it's important to follow form - horses tire, get injured or get old, but for some reason football betting isn't commonly viewed in the same parameters. It really should be.

The final point is: get the balance right between bets with high stakes and bets that you'll win, but not get a big return on. For an example of what I mean, if you bet on a striker being the first goalscorer in a football match, there's likely to be great odds (10/1 or more), but if you bet on that striker scoring anytime (at any point in the match), the odds are lower but there's a lot more chance of it happening. The same is true with betting on a win for a clear favorite for a match. You won't get any money back from a bet on the overall win, but you might from a bet on first-half and second-half results.

Though bettors are often referred-to as "punters", you're not taking a punt. You're better than that. You're investing your money in something that you believe is likely to happen, based on critical analysis of statistics, and your own sporting knowledge. Bookiesmash can help you with both of these - check out our top bets and ways you can get a great return from sports betting.

Image courtesy of fcbarcelona.com

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